Bitcoin's Price/Capital-Flow Split Echoes the Signal That Called the Last Cycle Bottom
Analyst Ali Martinez says a bullish divergence between BTC price and Net Capital Flows has resurfaced -- the same pattern he links to the move from roughly $15,000 to $126,000. Not everyone is convinced the bottom is in.
By Jane Doe
Published on Aug 6, 2026
Cryptorah
Quick Take
- Bitcoin traded a little below $64,800 on Thursday, up about 1.2% on the week, as bulls tried to reclaim $65,000.
- Analyst Ali Martinez flagged a bullish divergence between BTC price and Net Capital Flows -- the same signal he says preceded a rally from ~$15,000 to ~$126,000.
- Fidelity's Yardstick metric and Doctor Profit's "buying region" ($64,000-$54,000) both point toward possible undervaluation, with Fidelity floating October 2026 as a cycle-relevant window.
- ⚠️ CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno pushes back: exchange leverage (ELR ~0.22) is at its cycle high, a setup he compares to the volatile run-up to the 2022 bear-market bottom.
What Happened
Bitcoin was changing hands just under $64,800 on Thursday, roughly 1.2% higher over the trailing week, as buyers pushed to retake the $65,000 level. Against that backdrop, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed to a technical pattern he considers historically significant: a bullish divergence between BTC's price and its Net Capital Flows.
Martinez says this exact divergence last showed up at what turned out to be the cycle low -- a bottom that preceded a run from around $15,000 up to roughly $126,000. His framing was blunt: "The same signal is back." He had separately noted that the SuperTrend indicator, a trend-following tool, had also flipped to a buy signal on BTC.
He isn't the only voice describing the current range as an opportunity rather than a danger zone. Analyst Doctor Profit has repeatedly called the $64,000-$54,000 band a buying region, while explicitly declining to name an exact bottom:
"I won't be able to predict the EXACT bottom, and everyone who claims he can is a liar. I'm good at predicting regions, and I appreciate your respect for that! My buying region indicates that this is the bottom region, and I'm preparing for that."
Fidelity added a third data point last week, saying its proprietary Yardstick metric had dropped to levels the firm associates with undervaluation. Fidelity noted such readings have historically lined up with accumulation phases and relative market bottoms, and floated October 2026 as a period worth watching if the current cycle tracks prior ones.
Why It Matters
When multiple, independently-derived signals -- a price/flow divergence, a trend indicator, and a valuation metric from a major asset manager -- point the same direction, traders tend to treat that convergence as more credible than any single indicator alone. That's part of why Martinez's comparison to the run from $15,000 to $126,000 carries weight for some readers: it implies the same setup, if it repeats, has historically preceded a large move rather than a marginal one. But convergence of bullish signals is not the same as confirmation, and the article's own skeptics are a reminder that indicators can flash early.
The Numbers
Methodology & sourcing notes
Figures above come directly from the reporting: Thursday's ~$64,800 price and 1.2% weekly gain, the $65,000 resistance level, Martinez's $15,000-to-$126,000 reference range for the prior cycle, and CryptoQuant's Estimated Leverage Ratio reading of ~0.22 on Binance. "Net Capital Flows," "SuperTrend," and Fidelity's "Yardstick" metric are named but their underlying formulas/methodology are not detailed in the source -- treat them as the analysts' proprietary or standard technical tools rather than independently verified figures here.
Market Reaction
Not everyone is reading the setup as bullish confirmation. CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno says it's premature to call a bottom. He points to Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) -- which compares futures open interest to the exchange's BTC reserves -- climbing to about 0.22, the highest reading of the current cycle, even as BTC trades near $64,000 and stays well below its prior highs.
A higher ELR indicates more leveraged exposure relative to available BTC on the exchange, which Moreno says makes the market more sensitive to even small price swings. He draws a parallel to the 2022 bear market, when the leverage ratio also surged as Bitcoin approached its cycle low -- a period marked by sharp volatility and repeated liquidations, where a durable base only formed after that excess leverage was flushed out.
⚠️ Flagged: interpretation differs by source
Moreno explicitly cautions that today's high-leverage setup "shares similarities" with the 2022 episode but is not, by itself, confirmation that the market has turned -- during that prior period, elevated leverage was part of the instability rather than a signal the bottom had already formed. This directly tempers the more bullish reads from Martinez, Doctor Profit, and Fidelity described above.
What's Next / Things to Watch
- Whether BTC can reclaim and hold the $65,000 level bulls are targeting.
- Whether the Binance Estimated Leverage Ratio keeps climbing or starts to unwind -- Moreno's framework treats a leverage flush, not just a leverage spike, as the more reliable bottom signal.
- October 2026, which Fidelity flagged as a period that could matter if the current cycle follows historical patterns.
- Whether Doctor Profit's $64,000-$54,000 "buying region" holds as support if price weakens further.
Background: what these terms mean
Net Capital Flows generally refers to on-chain estimates of money moving into or out of an asset. SuperTrend is a widely used trend-following technical indicator that flips between "buy" and "sell" states based on price and volatility. Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) is a CryptoQuant metric comparing an exchange's futures open interest to its BTC reserves, used as a proxy for how leveraged that exchange's derivatives market is. These are general definitions of standard/named tools, not figures from the source article.
FAQs
Has Bitcoin actually hit bottom?
It's disputed. Martinez, Doctor Profit, and Fidelity's data each point toward a possible bottom or undervaluation, but CryptoQuant's Julio Moreno says it's still too early to conclude that, citing rising exchange leverage.
What is the bullish divergence Ali Martinez is referring to?
A divergence between Bitcoin's price and its Net Capital Flows, which Martinez says previously appeared at the cycle bottom that preceded a rally from about $15,000 to about $126,000.
What price range is being called a "buying region"?
Doctor Profit has pointed to $64,000-$54,000 as a buying region, while stressing he is identifying a zone rather than an exact bottom.
Why is CryptoQuant skeptical of a bottom call right now?
Because Binance's Estimated Leverage Ratio has risen to about 0.22, its highest point this cycle, which Julio Moreno says makes the market more fragile and more prone to sharp swings -- a dynamic he compares to conditions before the 2022 bear-market low.
What is Fidelity's Yardstick metric?
It's described in the source as Fidelity's proprietary metric, which recently fell to levels the firm links historically to undervaluation and accumulation phases; the article does not detail its exact methodology.
Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.
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