$10.4 Billion in Crypto Options Expire Today — Here's What the Positioning Says
The month's biggest Bitcoin and Ethereum expiry lands with calls heavily outnumbering puts, max pain sitting almost exactly at the spot price, and $25B already having left the market this week.
By Jane Doe
Published on Jul 31, 2026
Cryptorah
- About 149,000 BTC options ($9.57B) and 433,000 ETH options ($825M) expire Friday, July 31 — the largest expiry of the month, bringing today's total notional to roughly $10.4B.
- The BTC put/call ratio is 0.28, meaning call contracts vastly outnumber puts, while max pain sits at $64,000 — close enough to the $64,325 spot price that a large share of contracts will land in the money.
- Open interest is concentrated at the $70,000 and $72,000 strikes ($2.4B each on Deribit), with short sellers holding $1.3B at $60,000; total BTC options OI across all exchanges stands at $34.7B.
- The expiry follows a rough week for crypto broadly — about $25B has left the market since the Fed held rates steady and US-Iran military tensions resumed.
What Happened
Friday, July 31 brings the crypto options market's largest expiry of the month, a recurring feature of the last trading day of every month, when contracts pile up and expire together. Roughly 149,000 Bitcoin options contracts are set to expire, carrying a notional value of about $9.57 billion — a figure large enough on its own that traders are watching for knock-on volatility in the spot market.
Ethereum's expiry is smaller but still notable: around 433,000 contracts worth $825 million, with a max pain point of $1,800 and a put/call ratio of 0.59 (more balanced than Bitcoin's, though calls still lead). Combined, the two expiries bring the day's total options notional to about $10.4 billion.
The positioning skews heavily bullish on paper. Bitcoin's put/call ratio of 0.28 means call contracts (bets on higher prices) far outnumber puts (bets on lower prices) among the contracts expiring today. Max pain — the strike price at which the largest number of contracts expire worthless, and where option sellers face the least payout — sits at $64,000, which is close to where Bitcoin has actually been trading.
Why It Matters
Large monthly expiries like this one are a known driver of short-term volatility because they force market makers and large holders to rebalance hedges as contracts settle. With max pain so close to spot price, a large share of today's contracts will finish in the money rather than expiring worthless, which can concentrate trading activity and price swings right around the settlement window.
Deribit, which hosts the bulk of this open interest, framed the setup directly: "This creates massive liquidity and volatility, making it one of the best days to trade short-dated options," the exchange said.
The expiry also lands at a fragile moment for the broader market. Roughly $25 billion has left crypto this week following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and the resumption of military action between the US and Iran — two macro shocks that tend to push capital toward safety rather than risk assets.
Background: what is "max pain" and why does it matter here?
Max pain is the strike price at which the largest total value of options contracts would expire worthless — in theory, the point of maximum loss for option holders and minimum payout obligation for option sellers. Traders watch it as a rough (not guaranteed) magnet for where spot price might drift into an expiry, though it is a statistical artifact of open positions rather than a market force in itself.
The Numbers
Here is how today's expiry breaks down across the two assets, based on the figures in this report:
Deribit open interest by strike price for the current expiry cycle, plus max pain and spot markers. Bar heights are proportional to notional OI in billions of dollars.
Methodology & sourcing notes
Figures are drawn from this report's source material, which cites Deribit for strike-level open interest and Coinglass for total cross-exchange BTC options open interest. Strike-level open interest is reported only for the $60,000, $70,000, and $72,000 strikes; interest at other strikes was not provided and is not shown. The chart's x-axis spacing between strikes is illustrative, not linearly scaled to dollar increments, and the max pain/spot markers are positioned proportionally between the labeled strikes for readability.
The source does not specify which exchange(s) the $9.57B BTC and $825M ETH expiry notionals are aggregated across, nor whether the $34.7B and $5.4B total OI figures include the expiring contracts or represent open interest remaining after today. Treat the notional and OI figures as reported, not as fully reconciled against each other.
Market Reaction
Total crypto market capitalization ticked back up to $2.3 trillion on Friday morning, though the week overall has been one of gradual losses. Bitcoin briefly pushed above $65,000 in early Friday trading, was rejected at that level, and pulled back to $64,325 at the time the source report was written.
Bitcoin has been consolidating for roughly the past two months, and one analyst quoted in the source described current conditions as unusually quiet:
"BTC is at its lowest weekly volatility in two years." — Analyst 'Daan', as quoted in the source report
Ether has mirrored that compression, trading in a very tight band around $1,900 over the past few days. Deribit's own market commentary struck a cautious note on the macro backdrop:
"Overall, macro and risk asset signals remain cautious. BTC continues to face short-term pressure, with market stabilization and renewed capital inflows being key signals to watch." — Deribit, as quoted in the source report
What's Next / Things to Watch
- Post-expiry price behavior: whether Bitcoin drifts toward the $64,000 max pain level as contracts settle, or breaks away from it given how close it already sits to spot.
- The $70,000–$72,000 strike wall: $2.4B in call open interest is stacked at each of these levels — a concentration worth watching if Bitcoin makes another run higher, since these are the levels where the most contracts would land in the money above spot.
- The $60,000 put wall: $1.3B in short positioning sits here; a break below could test how well-hedged that positioning actually is.
- Macro overhang: continued fallout from the Fed's rate decision and the US-Iran military situation, which the source ties directly to this week's $25B outflow from crypto markets.
- Volatility regime shift: Bitcoin's two-month consolidation and multi-year-low weekly volatility make any decisive break in either direction more notable than it would be in a choppier market.
The source does not state what happens to open interest or price after the Friday expiry — the items above are framed as things to watch based on the positioning described, not as predictions made in the source material.
FAQs
Why does a monthly options expiry matter for Bitcoin's price?
End-of-month expiries bundle up far more contracts than routine weekly ones. Today's ~149,000 BTC contracts ($9.57B notional) is described in the source as much larger than a typical event, which is why it's flagged as a potential source of spot market volatility.
What does a put/call ratio of 0.28 mean?
It means call contracts (bets on price increases) outnumber put contracts (bets on price decreases) roughly 3.5 to 1 among today's expiring Bitcoin options — a call-heavy skew in the contracts that are settling.
What is "max pain" and why is $64,000 significant?
Max pain is the strike price where the largest value of options would expire worthless. At $64,000, it sits close to Bitcoin's reported spot price of $64,325, meaning a substantial share of today's contracts are positioned to finish in the money rather than lapse.
Where is open interest concentrated on Deribit right now?
The source reports $2.4 billion in open interest at each of the $70,000 and $72,000 call strikes, and $1.3 billion in put open interest at the $60,000 strike, on Deribit specifically.
Why has $25 billion left the crypto market this week?
The source attributes the outflow to two macro events: the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, and the resumption of military action between the US and Iran.
Investment disclaimer: The content reflects the author’s personal views and current market conditions. Please conduct your own research before investing in cryptocurrencies, as neither the author nor the publication is responsible for any financial losses.
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