Bitcoin Presses New August Highs as CPI and PPI Loom Over the Fed's Next Move

What Happened

Bitcoin climbed to a new high for August heading into Sunday's weekly close, with BTC/USD reaching $65,420 before consolidating as traditional markets reopened. The move comes just ahead of two pieces of US economic data that could sway the Federal Reserve's next rate decision: the July Consumer Price Index (CPI), due Wednesday, and the July Producer Price Index (PPI), due Thursday.

Those reports follow a run of weaker-than-expected data. Last month's CPI posted its steepest monthly decline since April 2020, and the most recent nonfarm payrolls report showed a softening labor market. Together, that data has already shifted rate expectations: markets moved from pricing in a 0.25% hike at the Fed's Sept. 16 meeting to now favoring a continued pause, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing a 56% probability of a hold as of Monday.

Complicating the inflation picture is the unresolved US-Iran conflict, which matters for CPI because of oil's sensitivity to shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based SS WealthStreet, told Reuters that crude prices remain stuck between the possibility of a resolution over the strait and Iran's own conditions for reopening it.

Separately, the Japanese yen remains a live wildcard. After JPY/USD sank to its weakest level since 1986 in early August, the New York Fed — acting for the US Treasury — bought yen with euros through the Exchange Stabilization Fund in the first joint US-Japan intervention since the late 1990s. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled on X that further intervention was possible. The yen initially strengthened to around 156 per dollar but has since slid back above 158.50, nearing the 160 level that preceded the intervention.

Why It Matters

Meanwhile, the widening gap between large and small Bitcoin holders adds a structural dimension: CryptoQuant frames the divergence as two opposing positioning trends happening at once — larger balance cohorts adding exposure while smaller holders reduce it — right as the CPI/PPI releases approach.

The Numbers

Whale accumulation vs. its previous peak

Market Reaction

BTC/USD has been trading in what TradingView data (as cited in the source) describes as a stubborn range, with the 50-month exponential moving average acting as resistance at $65,827. Trader Michaël van de Poppe pointed to bullish divergences on the MACD and RSI across both three-day and one-week timeframes, naming $65,800 as the key weekly level — a break above which he expects to force short positions to unwind.

Order-book data from CoinGlass showed liquidity building on both sides of the current spot price, with $65,800 also flagged as a zone where short positions could face liquidation; 24-hour cross-crypto short liquidations stood at $53 million at the time of the report. CryptoQuant contributor Andrew Kamsky described a falling-wedge pattern on the daily chart, with a "decision window" that could resolve by Aug. 17: a rejection between $66,400 and $66,800 followed by higher lows could form an ascending triangle, while a break below wedge support would invalidate the bullish setup. Kamsky named $72,000 as a possible upside scenario if the breakout holds.

On the bearish side, Glassnode's Rafael Schultze-Kraft called current spot markets "virtually dead," citing the record-low 0.32% turnover ratio and a roughly 64% year-over-year drop in dollar volume, and argued that a healthier rally needs participation to return. Separately, a 45-indicator composite tracked by Glassnode (its Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap) was described as sitting in a "capitulation" phase — its coldest reading since the FTX collapse, though not yet at the extreme levels that have historically marked a cycle floor. Trader Rekt Capital drew a direct comparison to 2022, noting Bitcoin is forming lower highs relative to July's wick this year, versus a higher high in the same window during 2022, and that BTC remains unable to reclaim the 50-month EMA — something Rekt Capital called a classic precursor to a final bear-market capitulation in the 2022 cycle.

What's Next / Things to Watch

• Wednesday: July CPI release — a hot print would likely undercut current pause-favoring Fed odds.
• Thursday: July PPI release, the second half of this week's inflation data pair.
• By Aug. 17: The "decision window" CryptoQuant's Andrew Kamsky flagged for Bitcoin's falling-wedge pattern to resolve one way or the other.
• $65,800: The weekly level multiple traders cited in the source point to as the line between continued consolidation and a larger breakout attempt.
• The 160 yen level: A yen move back toward the point that triggered the initial US-Japan intervention could raise the odds of a second intervention, which Bessent has suggested remains on the table.

FAQs

Why do July's CPI and PPI reports matter for Bitcoin right now?

They land right after a run of soft inflation and jobs data that already pushed market odds toward the Fed pausing rate hikes at its Sept. 16 meeting; a surprise in either direction could shift those odds again.

What price level are Bitcoin traders watching most closely?

$65,800 is repeatedly cited in the source as the key weekly level, sitting just below the 50-month EMA resistance at $65,827.

Why does the Japanese yen keep coming up in Bitcoin coverage?

The yen just saw its first joint US-Japan intervention since the late 1990s after hitting multi-decade lows, and its trajectory is tied to the yen carry trade, which trading firm QCP Capital notes has broader liquidity implications for risk assets including crypto.

Are big Bitcoin holders buying or selling?

According to CryptoQuant data cited in the source, wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC added 46,420 BTC over 60 days as of Aug. 9 — a multi-month high — while wallets holding 0.1–1 BTC (typically retail-sized) distributed around 9,700 BTC over the same window.

Is Bitcoin still in a bear market?

Multiple indicators cited in the source — including Glassnode's Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap and CoinGlass's Bull Cycle Peak Indicators — describe current conditions as consistent with a late-stage bear market, though not yet at the extreme readings that have historically marked a cycle bottom.